Mate selection is close to investing. It’s all about seeking certainty


The article is from wechat official account: Memory bearer.Welcome to read the full article.How can women improve their sense of security?I gave you an example.An assistant didn’t know where to pick up the description of his love story.The heroine of the story is looking for security.In her opinion, while she was still young, she got a Beijing household, a state-owned enterprise, and married a man with a house in the capital, which is more secure than waiting for her boyfriend who just graduated from graduate school.As I said yesterday, insecurity is a kind of delusion in the process of urbanization that people hope to build villages in cities for 800 years.But there is an investment term that comes close to that feeling of security. It’s called certainty.The essence of so-called investment is to seek scarce certainty among countless uncertainties, or periodic certainty, even if it is a moment of certainty.I have told you the whole story in one sentence.The topic of investment is charged. As I said, since last year, the wechat team has stipulated that there are eight of them.But today it’s free, because I’m not going to talk about banned topics, I’m going to talk about mate choice.Well, no one’s going to put us in a cliff for that.The woman in the story yesterday, she was actually looking for a sense of security, but at the same time she was involuntarily looking for an investment model, she was actually looking for some degree of certainty.A man, the capital has a house, two sets, this will not disappear immediately.The other man, a graduate student, is not sure when he will be able to put together a down payment.The former is certain as opposed to the latter.The latter, as opposed to the former, is full of uncertainty.Yesterday, some female readers kindly reminded that the former house belongs to the property before marriage, and you may not be able to leave anything behind after divorce.But standing in the story of the female perspective thinking, don’t marry the latter must not divorce?Some people will say that if you marry the latter, you will get a divorce and the property will be equally divided after marriage.The problem is that standing in the perspective of the female protagonist, half of the property is originally earned by themselves, and they are not covered with glory.After the former divorce, it is true that the two houses belong to each other’s pre-marital property, the problem is that divorce is only a possibility.If you make 100, the probability is 1%, the mathematical expectation is 1, and if you lose 100, the probability is 1%, the mathematical expectation is minus 1.The girl is right. You build a mathematical model and the risk of marrying the former is lower than the latter.And in fact, there are other risk factors.Like waiting.You have to wait for the latter 10 years, 10 years later he can afford a house, he will not necessarily marry you, he may marry you 10 years ago.As the heroine of the story, she faces a model that resembles a company, a company whose market value has been declining for a long time.Should she raise at the highest valuation, or wait for valuations to revert to the mean and refinance?In her eyes, the love the hero gave her was a kind of promise, an oral promise without legal effect, similar to my promise to you to acquire at the highest valuation point in this decade. Such option could not be concluded in real life.You see, a love story, in the eyes of investors, is so dull and boring.So she’s smart, she’s a good investor, she’s made the best choice of her life, right?Not so.She just makes the majority of decisions at the retail level.Then why does she seem so calm and smart?Because even if it is the leek in the stock market, their rational degree is far higher than the children in love.Investors, who are usually mature adults, are rare to enter the market at the age of six.A mature man is, after all, a little more sensible and calmer than those young men and women who are dying to live.But there is a hierarchy among investors.You see one man, Beijing households, two suites, of course, are advantages, but the dominant advantages, are usually fully digested by the market.The probability that a company, all things considered, is undervalued is extremely low.This man, a man with two houses, if he’s willing to marry you, there’s only one answer, and of all the girls he’s had access to, you’re the best, relatively speaking.If not, be careful, he’s probably not after you for the purpose of marriage.You’ve sold stocks before. A seller always sells to a buyer.Did not sell a stock to sell a house to also understand ah, Zhang SAN gives 10 million, Li Si gives 9 million, can you sell li Si?In other words, if you get married, you’re not getting any advantage.Because you are all social now, you are mature, you have been exposed to a wide range of young men and women.Adult relationships are like stock exchanges, transparent and open.If you’re going to pick up the slack and have a mismatched marriage, it’s most likely to happen at the campus stage.If you look at Europe and Japan, unless the prince and princess haven’t graduated yet and don’t know that they are prince and princess, at that time, implanted emotions are a big check.At the end of the day, the other person treats you like family, so the match doesn’t matter that much.This is like the angel investment stage, it is possible to appear hundreds of times, thousands of times the rate of return.By the time a company goes public, you’re actually competing with a lot of investors, you’re dealing with matching deals.You want to glory, also can only touch the light of time, can not immediately pick up the leak.That’s why I’m sure if this girl marries this guy, it won’t be a good thing, because she’s already working, and he’s already working, and we’re adults, not kids on campus.But we think, jump out of the ordinary shareholders, commonly known as leek this stage, as a high level of investors, should think about what problem?Developmental issues should be considered.Warren Buffett is a long-term investor. He doesn’t just look at your results this year.He needs to look at at least three things. First, the outlook for your industry.Second, your team;Third, your model or the pattern of your past development.If you do not show me the three things, it is ok to hype the short term, but it is not reliable in the long term.The second company I worked for did exactly that. It doubled every year, collapsed a few years later, and didn’t recover for a decade.There was a lot of cheating going on and the coal boss got caught up in it.In the marriage model, if you want to play the short term, unless the guy is 82 and you’re 28, you’re sure to marry him, he’ll be gone soon enough, and you’ll inherit his two homes.Of course, there are accidents, if he lives more than a hundred years, then you are trapped.This is called flipping stocks and becoming shareholders.Apparently, the heroine of the story chooses a long model.As a long-term model, it’s not enough just to know that the other person has two houses, far from it.Space is limited, the free article is aimed at the vast majority, most people’s reading limit is in 3000 words, no one will read beyond the outline.So I’m just going to talk a little bit today. It’s easy to understand.1.01 to the 365th =381 to the 365th =10.99 to the 365th =0.03 This is a comment from a reader yesterday.What do you mean?If you choose a person who has a 1% incremental property, he is a potential stock, and if he has a negative 1% reduction property, you are in a pit by marrying him.If there is nothing, then you will find that he has been in the same place all his life.Even if you examine nothing, you will examine this point.Some people say how can we examine this?Every guy tells me he’s a potential, he’s got a future.Crap. He wouldn’t be a man if he didn’t say that.Men are like entrepreneurial teams. Of course, promises to women come with open mouth. What entrepreneurial team have you ever seen that didn’t come with open mouth to investors?We’re on the eve of a flash point, you throw it in, there’s an explosion, and it takes off.When the time comes hundreds of times, thousands of times the rate of return, millions per second up and down, or us dollars…….Take you fly, I guess that’s where you came from.This will be nice to listen to. When you become a professional investor, you will know that this kind of talk is like “Hello, have you eaten?” it is purely pleasantries.Really examine, observe the other person’s performance on different things over a period of time.In our middle school text, we learned that when the king of Chu was besieged, he commanded a dozen cavalry to break out of the siege, telling everyone where to attack, how many people to kill, and where to meet at last.And then everything went exactly as he expected.He couldn’t beat Liu Bang that was a very complicated problem, but 8000 children were willing to hang out with him, all the way to the end there are still others to follow, why?Because people do what they say they will.He must be able to deliver consistent success in certain areas to be credible.Do not understand to see before the trumpet bold that a few words, I said countless times, the unity of knowledge and action.Can’t do is don’t know, don’t know.So you don’t need to listen to what the other person has to say, you just need to see what the other person can do in a limited time.A guy tells you he’s a coder now, but he’ll be a CEO in 10 years.There is a way to verify this sentence, you just need to see if he can be the group leader in a year.Yes, it doesn’t mean he’ll be the CEO in 10 years. But if he doesn’t, chances are he won’t be the CEO in 10 years.The truth is very simple, most of the people who can become CEO in ten years will become vice president in five years, manager in three years and team leader in one year.So we can rule out most of the questionable choices by working backwards.You said that after I eliminate, no one can choose, that is not a problem of method, that is a problem of probability, you said that I finally picked, the other party did not like me, that is not a problem of method, that is your own problem.Investing is hard, and picking up the slack is even harder.You said I couldn’t find someone with potential, that it was normal.Investors fly all over the world, their hair boiled white, looking for potential stocks, found the participation can not go in, it is also very normal, itself is a minimal probability event.A professional investor can find an excellent and sustainable long-term target all his life, just like the early investment in Alibaba and Tencent. The first world war is enough to make him a god.You can’t pick cabbages all over the floor.It is normal to meet a team with loose lips. It is rare to keep one’s word and do what one promises. If you can’t find one with 1% increment, you should find one without increment.If an equivalent deal is not found, there are only two things to evaluate.First, whether there really is an effort to seriously diligent rational, almost traversal search.Second, whether you have a correct understanding of yourself, whether you really have enough chips rather than imagined.The article is from wechat official account: Memory bearer.Welcome to read the full article.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.